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The research firm estimates that by 2035, financial derivatives, including event contracts linked to commodities, cryptocurrencies and stocks, will account for 49% of turnover on yes/no exchanges, topping sports to become the largest volume driver. The research firm sees event contracts tied to key performance indicators (KPIs) leading the charge.
“We expect new products such as KPI markets, which allow users to trade a single corporate metric, such as production, deliveries, or subscriber growth, rather than the stock price itself,” observe the analysts. “Further, perp futures are expanding from crypto to commodities and single stock perps.”
Some exchange operators already filed plans to introduce KPI-linked event contracts. Those derivatives would be tied to metrics such as corporate earnings or, in more nuanced cases, Apple iPhone shipments or Tesla deliveries — just two examples — in a given quarter.
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However, LSR noted that traditional game outcomes are no longer reliable indicators of bookmaker profitability, largely due to the rapid growth of same-game parlays and player props.
In the Las Vegas-based Circa Survivor contest, which drew over 25,000 entries entering Week 1, more than 8,000 entries were eliminated in the opening slate—most knocked out when the 8.5-point favorite Chargers fell to the Cardinals. That upset served as a proxy for the wider market, ruining countess parlay tickets across major sportsbooks.
Looking ahead to Week 2, bettors continue to chase high-scoring games. At BetMGM, Overs represent three of the five most-bet game totals by ticket count: Vikings-Bears (Over 48), Saints-Ravens (Over 46), and Panthers-Falcons (Over 44).
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As ever, I am indebted to too many people to mention, but Derek, Bill, Jasmine and every one of the Calvin Ayre team, as well as Calvin himself of course, have all shown a lot of faith in me to carry the torch and I hope I’ve done them all credit.
Finally, I really want to thank you, the reader who has kept coming back to find out what else I’m writing about each day, week, month and year. It is you to whom I write, constant reader, and if you’ve enjoyed what you’ve read, then feel free to follow me on Twitter, where a new destination will shortly be announced.
I’m as excited about my own future as the future of poker itself and while I’m changing seats, I’ll be staying at the table.
