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Hopefully it will be a better one. It’s up to each and every one of us to make it better, once all this mess is cleared out for good, along with all the considerable collateral damage.
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The $10 trillion forecast also implies significant growth in just five years from what previously stood as some of the most optimistic 2030 projections. In April, Bernstein estimated prediction market volume will ascend to $1 trillion by 2030 while Bank of America said prediction markets will eventually grow to $1.1 trillion in yearly turnover. A July report from Macquarie analyst Chad Beynon included a $1.5 trillion annual volume forecast by 2030.
If Bernstein’s $10 trillion prediction market turnover forecast is realized or exceeded, it’d likely prove significant in revenue terms because the research firm previously estimated that $1 trillion in yearly activity could generate as much as $10.8 billion in revenue for operators.
As has been widely documented, sports event contracts are currently the lifeblood of the prediction market industry, but Bernstein notes that won’t be the case on a permanent basis. In fact, the research firm estimates that sports derivatives’ share of industry volume will decline to 35% in 2035, indicating that the aforementioned volume increase will be led by other categories.
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Voluntary efforts have included Premier League football opting to ban front-of-shirt gambling sponsorships, as of the beginning of this current season. Although, branding remains on training kits, shirt sleeves and across stadium advertisements.
The committee’s previous 2020 report had recommended banning gambling ads on team shirts, training kits, stadium advertising and broadcasts, although on-course advertising for horse and greyhound racing was exempt.
The report rejected argumentswarning that advertising restrictions would drive consumers to illicit gambling sites. They citied weak evidence for mass migration to illegal operators following advertising limits.
