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His analogy is a poker table at which the weaker participants sustain the game. If those players disappear, the fourth-best professional at the table can suddenly become a loser because only the three strongest remain.

The US addressable market is vastly larger and customer recruitment remains strong. Marantelli says Kalshi increased its number of clients fivefold during the World Cup, while White Swan predicts that NFL prediction markets could generate between $5 billion and $7 billion of liability in a single week.

But he acknowledges the possibility that faster customer losses could eventually test the sustainability of the model.

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Miller served on the forum for several years and was a key UK figure during a period when the Gambling Commission implemented extensive reforms to online gambling regulation and affordability checks. GREF expressed its gratitude for Miller’s contributions during his tenure.

Jean-Michel Costes has also left the board after concluding his role at France’s Autorité Nationale des Jeux (ANJ). 

Costes was involved with GREF at a time when numerous European regulators, including the ANJ, focused on tightening advertising regulations and boosting player protection frameworks. The forum thanked Costes for his dedicated service.

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Atucha praises the regulation and the regulators themselves for making entry into the market easy, as well as allowing them to be competitive against illegal operators. But the market hasn’t been without its challenges.

A 1% selective consumption tax (ISC) on the value of every online bet has been in force since 1 July 2025, after the original policy was scrapped from proposed regulations in July 2021.

Atucha warns that regulations are often perceived as operator-friendly at the start before governments begin looking to squeeze licensed sectors, likening the process to “boiling a frog”. He has observed similar scenarios in other LatAm markets, with tax increases occurring in Brazil, Colombia and Mexico in the last couple of years.