El Vigilante

How to play El Vigilante

Then my life went into a sort of holding pattern for the next few years. I was getting tired of freelancing. It was too limiting, and I wanted to start my own thing. So in February of 2020, I started to set up the groundwork for going out on my own. It is now up and running at The End Game Investor (EGI). The theme is precious metals investing and trading in the context of the End Game, the end of the financial system as we have known it since 1971, taken from an Austrian Economics perspective.

Then, one month later, the end of the world as we know it actually happened. The Coronombie Apocalypse, everyone masked up and the Fed printed a skrillion dollars and I lost most of my other freelance arrangements as everyone went into hiding and confusion and pandemonium.

But the groundwork for my own thing had already been laid, as did the actual global backdrop for speeding up what I was already predicting was going to happen anyway. So I focused up and got it started. I still wrote for CalvinAyre.com though, which actually hung on, to my pleasant surprise.

What is El Vigilante?

In 2025, Brazil collected almost BRL10 billion ($1.97 billion) in tax revenue from the licensed sector. In the first seven months of this year alone, BRL8.7 billion generated by the activity was delivered to public coffers. The Federal Revenue Service itself estimates that the sector should reach BRL16 billion in revenue during 2026.

Besides revenue collection, another concern is legal and economic. Companies have paid over BRL2.5 billion for licences since the sector’s regulation. Certainly, the end of the activity would lead to litigation to recover the amounts paid and compensation for investments made. Furthermore, the revenue from betting is already included in the Annual Budget Law and the Budget Guidelines Law, which define the priorities for federal government spending.

What worries the sector is not just the threat of drastic measures against legalised betting. So far, the government has consistently fallen short in its attempts to curb the illegal market, which still represents almost half of the segment.

What is El Vigilante?

Bally’s shares plunged 26% on 17 August despite a solid Q2 in which group revenue rose by 20% year-on-year to €792.2 million.

The share price came under pressure following debt disclosures in Bally’s Q2 10-Q filing, which was submitted to the Securities and Exchange Commission on 14 August.

In the filing, Bally’s noted that based on current forecasts, the business “does not project that it would satisfy the liquidity maintenance requirement” or the “consolidated net leverage ratio covenant” in its revolving credit facility over the next year.